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zxDaveM

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6 hours ago, zxDaveM said:

Vadream out for a spin at Ascot this afternoon, dropping back a furlong from her last race.

Bit of an outsider though

 

ran on really well in the last 2f to get 3rd @ 28/1, behind the joint favs for the 'boys in blue' of Godolphin in 1st and 2nd.

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18 hours ago, zxDaveM said:

Topically, a horse called Vaccine won today (at Ayr), and last week a horse called Lockdown won (and both at fairly long odds).

Sadly, I only noticed them AFTER they had won

 

and to complete the treble today, Epidemic runs at Pontefract, at a very short price!

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14 hours ago, zxDaveM said:

Vadream runs again today, at York races. She's fav for her race, and after several very good runs in even higher quality races, deserves to get her head in front in this one

 

Looks like she came second.

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3 hours ago, LinMM said:

How can you tell when the jockey gives the horse an indifferent ride? 

 

It was a typical Jamie Spencer ride - way off the pace, tried to find a way through a host of horses too close to the running rail (perhaps should have come round the field down the middle of the track). By the time he had a clear run on her, the winner (and other placed horses) had gone past the winning post

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1 hour ago, LinMM said:

Sorry to be such a div but what does 5/4 mean? 

 

 the betting odds: if you put £4 on, you win £5, plus your stake of £4, so a return of £9 altogether. Or as is more usual in my case, you put £4 on and the horse comes second so you get nowt back!! lol

The history of betting prices and how a bookmaker's 'book' works is fascinating, and the actual odds (the fractional ones) originated from the old £sd money (half crowns and shillings and all that)

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1 minute ago, LinMM said:

I understand things like 5 to 1 or 10 to 1 etc etc and so on but when it says 5/4 that looks more complicated and interesting how it would get to 5/4 as opposed to say 6/1 ( same profit....I think!) 

 

I don't think sums are your strong suit lol!!

If you put £4 on at 6/1, you'd get 6 x 4 = £24 profit, plus your £4 back, so a return of £28

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No what I meant was 6-1 would be £1 on and £6 if you win but minus the £1 you paid so isn’t that a profit of £5? 
I have no idea why a horse would be going at 5/1 as opposed to 5/4 ....is it decided by how many people are actually placing bets on that horse? 

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Actually I keep reading the info about the 5/4 post above and I still don’t get it!!

You pay out £4 ...if it’s a win you get £5 back ( so at this point a profit of £1)

But you also get the original £4 back so isn’t that a profit of £5 🤔

 

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I keep seeing this pop up on my Unread Posts feed, and thought I would tell you about an experiment/game a friend and I played.

 

We used to go the races together - mostly jump racing - and I would randomly pick horses due to their literary, or theatrical names. I never bet more than £5, though!

 

So we set up a spreadsheet over one whole jump race season, picking horses by the principle of their names. He's a geologist by trade, so his picks were all about rocks, and petrol & mining ... I chose arty names. 

 

And guess what? We ended the season pretty much on a par. So, you know, arty names do well!! 

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Going back to betting odds on horses

I see.... (it’s so long now since I’ve actually placed a bet ...at least ten years ago...) 

that Say in the previous 6/1 example you get the £1 you put on back as well as the winnings so it would be £7 profit as you don’t lose the £1 you put on 🙄 
Still having a go at the 5/4 one 

You put £4 on you win £5 but you keep the £4 you put on so would win £9! 
I think I’ve got it I think I’ve got it!!

So the nearest equivalent to 5/4 would be 8/1 where both would result in a £9 profit. 
What I was wanting to know is how do they decide whether a horse runs at 5/4 odds or 8/1 odds? 

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Perhaps if you stop thinking of the return of your stake (£4 or £1 in your examples) as profit it will be easier to understand how the betting odds work.  If you put £100 into a savings account and at the end of the year you get £100 back you haven't made a profit - just got your "stake" back.  If the bank had gone bust (or "lost the race") you would have lost your stake.  As I understand it (zxDaveM will correct me if I'm wrong) odds are decided on what the bookies think are the chances of a horse winning a race, their aim of paying out the least amount possible in the event of it winning and their estimation of how much of a risk they think people are willing to take on the loss of their stake if it doesn't win.  They do, after all, want people to bet!  The longer the odds (e.g. 100/1) the less likely they think it is the horse will win and vice versa.  So you might be willing to risk a stake of £1 on a horse whose name you fancy but who stands little chance of winning but you may not want to risk a larger stake of, say £10.

 

In your 5/4 versus 8/1 example, if you forget about the return of the stake, there is a difference between risking a £10 stake for a chance of winning £80 and risking a £40 stake on a chance of winning £50. 

 

 

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Thanks Anne that’s helpful. I do have a vague idea about it but I forgot that if the horse wins you do get the money back that you put on. 
I can see that 5/4 odds are not exactly the best but it’s interesting why it would be set at that as probably not many would bother to bet at those odds. 
I used to bet regularly on the Grand National a habit from living in Liverpool days but stopped doing it at least ten years ago probably more than that. 
I only ever went by the horses names lol! 
When I’ve watched  on TV when you could see the horses being paraded around before the race and heard a bit about them that seemed a much better way to pick a winner but then no time to get to the betting shop lol!! 

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21 hours ago, LinMM said:

Actually I keep reading the info about the 5/4 post above and I still don’t get it!!

You pay out £4 ...if it’s a win you get £5 back ( so at this point a profit of £1)

But you also get the original £4 back so isn’t that a profit of £5 🤔

 

 

you give the bookie £4 (your stake), he puts up £5, so £9 in total. Horse wins, you collect the £9 (i.e. £5 profit, plus your £4 stake back). Horse loses, your £4 and the bokkies fiver stay in his satchel. Which is usually what happens with me

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